Against Lean Startup

Beyond the Lean

People often think that the best way to predict the future is by collecting as much data as possible before making a decision. But this is like driving a car looking only at the rearview mirror—because data is only available about the past.” As Clayton Christensen aptly states, relying solely on past data has its limitations. This is especially true when creating revolutionary, iconic products that defy conventional wisdom.

Lean = Compass

The Lean Startup methodology has gained immense popularity, particularly in Silicon Valley. The approach advocates launching Minimum Viable Products (MVPs) quickly and using customer feedback to iterate rapidly. However, while this strategy helps minimize failure costs and provides valuable data, it risks incrementalism. By prematurely testing products externally, the chance to make a lasting impression and generate word-of-mouth is diminished.

The Lean Startup approach has merit as a pedagogical tool, guiding entrepreneurs to better empathize with user needs. For those still developing intuitive insights, it provides a framework to minimize wasted resources and avoid disruptive missteps.However, the methodology acts like training wheels - stabilizing novices yet constraining mastery. Visionaries must eventually transcend its incremental mindset, daring to dream beyond early customer feedback.

Lean Startup is a compass, not a map, pointing enterprising leaders toward customers but not defining the destination. It sparks incrementalist improvements more than iconoclastic innovation. For the aspiring revolutionary, its principles enlighten but cannot replace bold vision. The method is best wielded to trim fat, not forge new futures.

Vision = Map

A recent example is OpenAI, co-founded by Sam Altman. Rather than rely on incremental improvements, OpenAI aims to push artificial intelligence capabilities beyond current limitations. After the breakthrough success of GPT-3, Altman admitted he started to doubt some of the very principles he teaches founders at Y Combinator - challenging the notion that customer feedback should drive product development rather than bold technological vision.

honestly, i feel so bad about the advice i gave while running YC i’ve been thinking about deleting my entire blog - Sam Altman

The “launch fast, fail fast” approach promotes agility, but not necessarily greatness. Truly iconic products come from not just validating market needs, but envisioning what customers lack the imagination to conceive. A

Lead the markets rather than read them.